I am cautiously optimistic that we can see real change, and in that vein I am going to make ten predictions, based solely on my gut-level feeling and nothing else, tempered with a healthy dose of fervent wishful thinking.
- The McCain Doctrine of a troop buildup and escalation of hostilities will surely be hung around the old man's neck and doom his candidacy before the first primary vote is cast a year from now. Only 11% of Americans support an escalation while approximately 70% support withdrawal. Delay of the inevitable is futile, and when human lives are lost as a result of that delay, it is morally bankrupt.
- By December 31, 2007 Dick Cheney will be gone. I don't know if his *heart* will give out or he will resign or be impeached or what the mechanism will be, but he will not be the vice president this time next year.
- Donald Rumsfeld will be found guilty of war crimes in absentia and be confined to the United States, subject to arrest in any other nation. Thanks to methods of capture he helped set forth, he need not be served a warrant nor hearing, just grab him up in Milan and put a bag over his head and throw him in the back of a black sedan and fly him off to a black site...
- Iraq will continue to deteriorate and casualties will continue to mount, setting new "records" month after month. The services will not make their recruiting goals this year.
- Tim Johnson will return to his Senate seat some time in the spring or early summer. Remember Biden had a similar event (anneurism vs AVM, they differ in etiology but are very similar in consequence) and was absent from the senate for six months in 1988.
- Three moderate Republicans will switch parties.
- Global Warming deniers will be dealt setbacks by undeniable events in the physical world. I just hope a chunk of the Greenland ice sheet doesn't slip into the sea.
- Universal healthcare will move toward becoming a reality because business leaders are coming around. Administration of health plans is making American goods non-competitive with imports from nations that provide health coverage for their citizens.
- President Bush will veto popular legislation and stubbornly "stay the course" - and watch as his approval ratings continue to plummet. I look for numbers to drop below 25% - and if his pathologies are manifest enough, below 20%. At that point, impeachment may take on an air of popular support.
- If that happens, and the congress does not respond in kind, this blog will start calling for the adoption of legislation that would allow for a "No Confidence Vote" like the citizens of parliamentary governments of Europe enjoy. We need the opportunity to turn out a Dyonisian president in the midterm in certain circumstances. Maybe I should start that movement anyway...
