What does a Nuclear North Korea Mean?

Well, I stayed up all night chasing down seismic data and emailing friends at the U.S. Geological Survey, in military intelligence and a foreign policy analyst or two whose paths have intersected with my own from time to time over the last couple of decades. (I have a couple more things going for me than just an attitude and a broadband connection. But for obvious reasons I don't harp on those things. I look terrible in orange.)

Here is my analysis of the events of the last 24 hours, for what it is worth.

First, take the advice of the venerable Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy and Don't Panic. The North Koreans are not on the verge of chucking atomic rocks at their neighbors. The test they conducted is not even in the same time zone as "good news," but we are not on the edge of global thermo-nuclear war, either. We aren't even on the verge of new-que-lar war. We can still deal with this.

Kim Jong Il is not a fool - unstable maybe - but not stupid. He knows the score. He is the only buffer the Chinese have against encroaching American influence. South Korea is a thriving country and close trading partner of the United States. Seoul looks more like an American city than Pyongyang. Americanism encroaches from every direction - Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore and Tokyo all beckon. Unbridled capitalism is fueling China's ascent into the world economy and threatening the revolution all at the same time. He who rides the tiger can not dismount.

In 1994, the United States and North Korea went to the table and negotiated and the North Korean government re-entered the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty. In exchange for two light-water reactors for power production, to be provided by South Korean and Japanese electric companies. While the Plutonium reactors were shut down, and before the first LWR would go on line, the United States would supply heavy fuel oil for heating and electricity generation.

The North Koreans would cease enrichment of Uranium and they would shut down their existing Plutonium Graphite reactor, which easily yielded weapons grade Plutonium. There is a wierd little Physics "gotcha" that there is no escaping - Plutonium is easy to make weapons grade; but getting the implosion devices to operate properly is no mean event. If the implosion goes too slow the Plutonium flies apart and you get a "fizzler." Something about a liquid that doesn't like compression.

Uranium on the other hand is very difficult to refine to weapons grade, requiring cascading centrifuges and all manner of cool toys that make me weep. But it is really easy to make a bomb from Uranium once you have it enriched.

The agreement struck in exchange for North Korea entering the NNPT was known as the Agreed Framework. I wanted to link to the State Department Agreed Framework page, but it has been taken down.

The Agreed Framework was struck in 1994, and held until 2002. It fell because Bush withdrew American support. The first LWR never went on-line. Fuel oil shipments stopped. And North Korea fired up the Plutonium - Graphite Core reactor, kicked the IAEA inspectors out and pulled the spent fuel rods out of the cooling pond where they had been secured and under IAEA seal.

The path Bush chose to pursue was stupid, but it was also deliberate.

The danger is not in an imminent nuclear threat from North Korea, and the danger is not from a nuclear North Korea supplying fissible material to terrorists, so put that thought out of your mind right now. KJI is not stupid - he knows if a Plutonium dirty-bomb is set off anywhere in the world, he is getting the blame whether he supplied the plutonium or not. Remember that scene from The Godfather - the one where Don Corleone tells the heads of the rival crime families that if Michael should suffer a mysterious accident - if he is even struck by lightning - his father will of course blame the people sitting in that room. KJI is a big movie buff. I'm sure he knows the scene well. He is wagering that terrorist organizations do not have the stuff and are not close to getting any.

The threat is from an arms race in the region. Japan and South Korea are certain to go nuclear now. Both ceased development just short of constructing the Uranium devices when they entered the Non Proliferation Treaty as signatories.

Chinese and Japanese relations warmed significantly yesterday when the North Koreans detonated their device. That is a shift in the politics of the region that many never thought they would see. Me included. Japan has seen an upsurge in nationalism and militarism lately, and this situation bears watching.

The interests of the United States in Asia will be affected by this development, there is no doubt. Will cooler heads prevail, or will they step in it again?