More reasons they want you to think about anything but Iraq before you vote

Iraq is no longer a staging area for democracy in the middle east. It isn't even likely that the country can be held. The United States now faces withdrawing to the Green Zone and the hardened bases.

Instead of thinking about what to do in Iraq, think about what Tehran doesn't want to happen in Iraq, and then take action to bring those things about. It must be considered that the U.S. focus on holding Baghdad could play directly into Tehran's long range plans.

First off, Iran would naturally favor a Baghdad-at-all-cost strategy from the Americans for four very good reasons: For starters, if Baghdad takes all the focus and energy of the United States and coalition forces; the Kurdish, Shia and Sunni regions might be afforded the opportunity to break away from the central government in Baghdad.

Second, if Baghdad is the primary focus, Tehran could get to sit back and watch their long-term adversaries - Sunnis, Kurds and Americans - tear into one another while the Iranians do absolutely nothing and take no risks. Among other precipitating events, any attempt by the Kurds to take Kirkuk away from Iraq's Sunnis, which Iran encourages and the US does not oppose, would immediately ignite a civil war in Baghdad.

Third, with coalition forces concentrated in Bahhdad, they will be hundreds of kilometers away from Basra and other Iraqi exit points. All supplies for US forces would come through territory that increasingly would come under Iranian control. In a word, US forces would be trapped in Baghdad with no clear exit strategy. Baghdad is not Beirut, where US forces could be picked up on the beaches.

Finally, the US would take a huge number of casualties in sustained urban combat in Baghdad, to Iran's delight. The United States could face having no chance of prevailing in Baghdad and preserving Baghdad intact as Iraq's capital, given the potential for all out war between al-Qae'da's Sunnis, Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army of Shia, and the Sunni Kurds. This is because the Battle of Baghdad would soon become an exact replica of the Battle of Algiers, and we all know how that movie ended. France lost.