2006/2008 Crystal-Ball Gazing

Missouri is in for abumpy ride, and the Republican officeholders are in for a shock, come 2006. I predict that over half of the rural Missouri Republican state legislators, (especially the freshmen who won their seats by flogging the "gay marriage" strawman) will lose their seats in 2006. The Democrats are virtually assured a return to legislative power after the disastrous Medicaid slashing over-reach. Too many people are already regretting their votes, and they will retaliate. We are not stupid, and as a voting public we don't have collective ADD. We will remember, and we will vote accordingly.

That said, lets take a look at Democratic options that we have for 2006. Jim Talent is up for re-election to the seat he took from Jeanne Carnahan in a special election in 2002, inwhich he won the remaining four years of the term. In 2000, a lot of people will remember, Ms. Carnahans husband Mel, our beloved Governor, was in a dogfight with former Governor John Ashcroft for a senate seat. Governor Carnahan was killed in a small plane crash in bad weather on his way to a campaign event. He posthumously won the election and his wife filled his seat until the next scheduled statewide election.

Jim Talent is polling well under 50% and he is most assuredly beatable by the right Democrat. Missouri has two Democrats who are ready to step up.

First is the Secretary of State, Robin Carnahan, daughter of Mel and Jeanne. She is sharp, witty, thorough, precise...A woman to be admired and elected, most assuredly.

The second is Claire McCaskill. Any reader of this site knows that Claire is very high on my list of favorite Missouri politicians. In fact, she tops it with a cushion of comfort. She is one of the few that actually does anything. She is currently the state auditor, and prior to that she was the Prosecuting Attorney for Jackson County, the county that is home to Kansas City and a lot of urban crime. She was tough, she was good, and she was fair.

The way I see it, these women are the two obvious choices to challenge Jim Talent in 2006, and Matt Blunt (or whoever wins the Republican primary) in 2008.

I have been spending a lot of time thinking about this, and considering factors, and I think Claire should run for the senate on '06 and Robin should take the Governor's Mansion in '08. We need a Democratic senate in 2006 so we can turn the tide and reverse some of the damage done by the Bush administration. Let me tell you why I think this way:

First of all, Claire McCaskill can beat Jim Talent, handily. She could beat him even if the citizens of Missouri didn't feel they owed her one. But right now, after the November election and collective buyers-remorse being felt by the citizens of Missouri, she could get elected Queen and Supreme Potentate for Life, we feel so collectively rotten.

Second, she has a stellar, unmatched record to run on, and having been twice elected auditor, a state-wide office, she has name recognition. She has spent her life in public service. I am not a local, I'm a transplant. I first moved here in 1997, when she was Jackson County Prosecutor. I started to get impressed then. When we returned to Kansas City a few years ago, this time to stay, I got to work on her campaign and vote for her for the office of State Auditor when she made the jump from county to state politics. The more I know her the more she impresses me. That is not the norm when it comes to me and any politician.

Third, she is a tough litigator and a more than competent auditor. The Senate needs these qualities in a newly elected, unsullied Democrat. Her experience as State Auditor should get her a guaranteed seat on the finance committee. And some of us think beyond just "Can this person win the seat they seek?" I for one think "If this Democrat wins, what committee(s) is he or she going to get appointed to? Finance is a powerful committee, and her state service qualifies her better than most current members of the SFC. And there is more: She can assist in restoring senatorial credibility and respect after the self-serving BS we have been treated to under the current legislature. She has the integrity and the backbone to stand up to the Washington integrity-shredding apparatus. She would not get eaten alive, she would bite back.

Missouri needs her unique expertise and carefully developed skill set in the United States Senate.

Robin Carnahan, on the other hand, is doing a fabulous job as Secretay of State. This is a statewide office, and she has the name recognition and the family name to sweep the state and return human compassion to the Governors mansion. Robin is relatively young, but she grew up literally eating politics for dinner every night. She is imminitely qualified.

Her father was the best Governor we have had in well over a decade. A lot of folks seeing that a "Carnahan" was running for governor would vote for her on instinct. (Junkies of Democratic politics, think Birch and Evan Bayh in Indiana.) Think political family dynasty. Think invaluable connections that would benefit the citizens of this state. Think common sense that would push for legislation that would increase biotech firms to move to the Kansas City area rather than abdicate for fear of their scince professionals being hauled out of the lab in cuffs for suspician of conducting illegal research.

Think about it...if Matt Blunt decides to run for a second term, and squeaks out a primary victory, only to have to face Robin Carnahan in the General Election it will be politics at it's raucous Missouri finest. Talk about a clash of the titans!

If this looks even halfway probably, I am buying popcorn futures, because it will be a hell of a show to see.